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AFL Media's Brownlow cheat sheet

Dinny Navaratnam, AFL Media  September 25, 2017 9:43 AM

AFL 2017 First Preliminary Final - Adelaide v Geelong

How will Matt Crouch fare in Monday night's Brownlow Medal count?

Multiple records could be broken at the Brownlow Medal on Monday night, with Richmond superstar Dustin Martin expected to smash the field.

The AFL.com.au Brownlow predictor has Martin polling 38 votes, well ahead of last season's winner Patrick Dangerfield (29).

Dangerfield was ruled out of contention after he was suspended for a week for his tackle on Carlton ruckman Matthew Kreuzer in round 19 that left the Blue concussed.

If Martin reaches a tally of 38, it would be the biggest-ever return, surpassing Dangerfield's 35 last season. That doesn't include 1976 and 1977, when both field umpires gave their 3-2-1 votes.

Carlton champion Greg Williams, Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe and Dangerfield share the record for most best-on-ground games, with nine in 1994, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The predictor expects Martin to achieve that 10 times.

Dangerfield received votes in a record 15 matches last season, a feat Martin is expected to match.

Leaders after Round Five

=1. Rory Sloane (Adelaide) – 9
=1. Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) – 9
=3. Zach Merrett* (Essendon) – 7
=3. Patrick Dangerfield* (Geelong) – 7
=3. Joel Selwood (Geelong) – 7
=3. Trent Cotchin (Richmond) – 7  
=3. Dustin Martin (Richmond) – 7

Rory Sloane and Ollie Wines are predicted to be ahead after five rounds. Picture: AFL Photos
sloanewines.jpg

Leaders after round 12

1. Dustin Martin (Richmond) – 17
2. Josh Kelly (Greater Western Sydney) – 16
=3. Rory Sloane (Adelaide) – 15
=3. Joel Selwood (Geelong) – 15

Highest polling first-year players

1. Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton) – 3
2. Luke Ryan (Fremantle) – 2

Highest polling defender/ruckman/forward

Defender: Michael Hibberd (Melbourne) – 10
Ruckman: Paddy Ryder* (Port Adelaide) – 15
Forward: Lance Franklin (Sydney) – 17

Highest polling former winners

1. Patrick Dangerfield* (Geelong) – 29
2. Trent Cotchin (Richmond) – 14
3. Sam Mitchell (West Coast) – 12

*Ineligible

Patrick Dangerfield is predicted to accrue 29 votes this season. Picture: AFL Photos
danger29votes.jpg

THREE VOTE 'LOCK'

Adelaide: Rory Sloane collected 25 disposals and laid a monster 15 tackles as the Crows overran Hawthorn in Round Two.

Brisbane Lions: Dayne Beams led from the front in a convincing win against Gold Coast in Round 21. The skipper picked up 32 disposals and booted four goals.

Carlton: It was Bryce Gibbs' night against Gold Coast in Round 13 as he racked up 43 disposals and slotted a couple of goals in the victory. 

Collingwood: It might have been a draw with Adelaide in round 19 but Daniel Wells showed why he was recruited, notching up 34 disposals and kicking three goals. 

Essendon: Goalkicking midfielders are hard to go past, and Zach Merrett booted four in the final round win against Fremantle among his 31 disposals. 

Zach Merrett's four goals and 31 disposals in round 23 should win three votes. Picture: AFL Photos
zachmerrett3.jpg

Fremantle: It's not often a player in a loss is a lock for the three votes, but Michael Walters couldn't do much more in the nine-point loss to St Kilda in Round 15 after having 32 disposals and slotting six goals.

Geelong: There were so many Patrick Dangerfield performances to pick from, but his effort in the Round Nine win against the Western Bulldogs with 36 disposals, 12 tackles, 10 clearances and four goals was superb. 

Gold Coast: Gary Ablett dominated in the Round 12 win against Hawthorn, finishing with 37 disposals, 10 tackles and two goals. 

Greater Western Sydney: In a year when Josh Kelly was one of the most sought-after players in the competition, racking up 38 disposals, 10 inside-50s and 10 tackles against Essendon in Round 11 would have had his suitors' tongues wagging. 

Hawthorn: Shaun Burgoyne led the way as the Hawks pulled off a stunning upset against Adelaide in Round 14, collecting 26 disposals and two goals. 

Melbourne: Co-captain Jack Viney led the way in the impressive Round 14 road victory against West Coast. His 38 disposals and 26 contested possessions were enormous. 

North Melbourne: In a season full of unexpected results, North Melbourne's Round Seven win against Adelaide was the biggest shock. Jarrad Waite booted six goals that day alongside his 22 disposals.

Port Adelaide: Put Robbie Gray down for the three votes in the Round Two victory against Fremantle. Can't go past a 30-disposal and six-goal game. 

Richmond: Which Dustin Martin masterclass do you want? He had a lazy 40 disposals, 14 clearances, 12 inside-50s and two goals in the comfortable Round 17 win against the Brisbane Lions. 

St Kilda: When Jack Billings is on, he plays at a level few other Saints can. A prime example was in the Round Eight victory against Carlton, when he snagged five goals and picked up 30 disposals. 

Sydney: The bag of 10 goals from Lance Franklin in the final round win against Carlton made him a sure-fire selection for three votes. 

West Coast: Andrew Gaff suffered serious leather poisoning as the Eagles beat the Western Bulldogs in Round 15, notching up 42 disposals.

Western Bulldogs: In the Grand Final rematch against Sydney in Round Two, Marcus Bontempelli had 30 disposals and slotted two goals to help the Dogs win.