Adelaide returned to the top eight on the weekend but probably needs two more wins from the last three rounds to be sure of playing finals.
It is still possible, however, for both Geelong and Adelaide to finish in the top eight with 50 premiership points if North Melbourne can’t win one of its last three games against Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Richmond.
The run home
1. Fremantle
64 points (16 wins, three losses) 124.7 per cent
The loss to the Eagles means top spot is not locked away.
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
2. West Coast
58 points (14 wins, four losses, one draw) 148.3 per cent
Still in a battle for second spot (and a home final) May need to win all three remaining games to stay above the Hawks.
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
56 points (14 wins, five losses) 160.3 per cent
Looks safe in the top four and may need three more wins to steal second spot
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
4. Western Bulldogs
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 123.2 per cent
Fourth with a good percentage but needs to keep winning to stay there. Will play in the finals.
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
5. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 112.5 per cent
Could be back in the top four next weekend but can’t afford to drop any games.
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
6. Richmond
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 114.5 per cent
One more win should be enough to play in the finals but even three more wins is unlikely to be enough to get back into the top four.
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
7. North Melbourne
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 110.8 per cent
Three tough games ahead for the Roos and it will almost certainly need to win at least one of the three games to stay in the top eight.
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
8. Adelaide
46 points (Eleven wins, seven losses, one no result) 111.4 per cent
Two wins will secure a top eight spot, one may be enough depending on other results.
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
9. Geelong
42 points (Ten wins, eight losses, one no result) 101.9 per cent
Could still sneak in with two more wins but may need three.
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
10. Greater Western Sydney
40 points (Ten wins, nine losses) 100.9 per cent
Needs to get over Sydney this weekend to have any chance.
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
11. Collingwood
36 points (Nine wins, ten losses) 110.4 per cent
Mathematically, three wins and 48 points could sneak into eighth spot if others lose every game.
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
12. Port Adelaide
36 points (Nine wins, ten losses) 100 per cent
Same as Collingwood, if it finishes with three more wins and others crash.
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
Who's going to make it? Forecast the final eight with the 2015 ladder predictor
