THE AFL Commission will hear that Melbourne can improve without the benefit of a priority pick at the top of the draft when it meets on Monday.
A combination of high-end talent in recent seasons, a good crop of selections at the 2012 NAB AFL Draft and the return of senior players who were injured this season mean the club's list is not as bad as its performances suggest.
Its bid for a priority pick at the start of the draft appears unlikely to succeed. However the commission may use its discretion to provide Melbourne with an extra pick at the end of the first round.
The AFL executive has been charged with making a recommendation to the commission on the pick request but ultimately it is the commission's call, and it is not beholden to the executive's view. Its meeting will take place ahead of the Brownlow Medal.
It is expected at least two key factors in the recommendation relating to the Demons' list could work against their hopes of securing the selection.
One is that Melbourne has a young group of players, with a number of talented, developing ones. There is a view that its list does not reflect that of a team that won only two games in 2013.
Last year it drafted Jimmy Toumpas with pick four, got access to father-son star Jack Viney at pick 26, and won the rights to mini-draft prospect Jesse Hogan.
In a complex deal, the Demons parted with picks three and 13, which were handed to Greater Western Sydney in exchange for the rights to Hogan, young midfielder Dom Barry and pick 20.
Jack Trengove was a No.2 draft pick, Jack Watts is a No.1 pick and seems set to sign a new deal with the club, while Sam Blease, Jack Grimes, Luke Tapscott and Barry are other players with ability. They had the seventh youngest list in 2013.
Also, although its plan to recruit experienced players through last year's trade and free agency period backfired, its drafting did not. Toumpas and Viney played 14 and 13 games respectively, and later selections Matt Jones, Dean Terlich and Dean Kent had consistent seasons.
Another part of the recommendation which seems unlikely to be in Melbourne's favour is the injuries it suffered in 2013, which is seen as a relevant issue when assessing its results.
Key forward Mitch Clark could manage only four games after going down with a career-threatening foot injury, while Chris Dawes played 12 games among hamstring and knee issues. An All Australian three years ago, defender James Frawley played through pain for most of the season.
The Demons put in a submission recently to officially request the pick, citing its winning record of 32 wins in its past 154 games. Chief executive Peter Jackson debated the club's drafting history when he fronted the commission in June to ask for financial assistance.
Melbourne has applied for the pick under the AFL Rule 19.2, which deals with "special assistance" for clubs.
The details of the rule show that the commission "may determine in its absolute discretion that a club is entitled to one or more priority selections at the next occurring National Draft Selection Meeting. Such right to one or more priority draft selections shall be exercisable during the Draft as directed by the commission."
