The 2026 NAB AFLW Season is about to reach its dramatic conclusion, and Adelaide’s finals hopes still hang in the balance.
After 10 games, the Crows have an even five-win and five-loss record, placing them in ninth spot on the ladder and just 2.7 per cent from a coveted eighth position.
As Senior Coach Ryan Davis and his team prepare from season defining matches against North Melbourne (away) and Melbourne (home), we’ve crunched the numbers to work out how the Crows could make the finals.
The highest the team can realistically finish on the ladder is eighth spot, due to the fact they are two wins and over 10 per cent behind the seventh-placed Swans.
As a result, Adelaide’s two main competitors for the last spot in the finals are Fremantle and Hawthorn who sit above and below it on the ladder, respectively, and share the same win-loss record.
The Crows’ easiest path to the finals would be to win their last two games and hope Fremantle and Hawthorn drop at least one of its last two matches.
The Dockers travel to Geelong this weekend to face the second-placed Cats, who haven’t lost since Round One, before hosting Sydney in the final home and away game of the season.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, have an easier run home with a match against 17th-placed Essendon and a trip to Perth to face the 12th-placed Eagles.
If all three teams won their last two games, percentage would come into the equation, with the Crows sitting 2.5 per cent below the Dockers and 0.9 per cent above the Hawks.
As a result, Adelaide would need to rely on winning its last two games by a margin that ensures they clear both of its finals contenders percentage.
There is also a world where the Crows could lose one of their last two games and still make the finals.
Firstly, if Adelaide went 1-1 and Fremantle and Hawthorn both went 0-2, it would win a spot through to the top eight.
The Crows could also make it if both of their competitors drop one game each, provided they finish the season with the best percentage.
Port Adelaide, West Coast and Richmond are also mathematically alive in the finals race, as they sit one win behind the Crows, Dockers and Hawks.
However, the percentage gap between the Power (the highest of the four win teams) and the Crows sits at a significant 23.6 per cent, it is unlikely any of those teams could rise into the finals.
If Adelaide was to lose both games however, it could fall behind any of those teams if they finish the season undefeated, meaning the Crows could conceivably finish as low as 13th.
So long story short, outside of watching our two games, Crows fans should tune in to Fremantle and Hawthorn’s matches across the next fortnight, and politely cheer for them to lose.
Quick summary
IF Adelaide go 2-0: It will need Fremantle and Hawthorn to lose one game each OR win its final two games by enough that they get over the Dockers and Hawks on percentage (provided they go 2-0 as well).
IF Adelaide go 1-1: It will need Fremantle and Hawthorn to drop both games OR if the Dockers and Hawks go 1-1 as well, get itself in a position where it has the best percentage.
IF Adelaide go 0-2: Would be effectively season over unless every result went its way, including not one of Port Adelaide, West Coast or Richmond going 2-0.
Key matches that will define Adelaide’s season
Round 11
North Melbourne v Adelaide at North Hobart Oval, Sunday October 25, 12.35pm (ACDT)
Geelong v Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday October 24, 2.35pm (ACDT)
Hawthorn v Essendon at Kennedy Community Centre (Dingley), Sunday October 25, 2.35pm (ACDT)
Round 12
Adelaide v Melbourne at Unley Oval, Sunday November 1, 2.35pm (ACDT)
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn at Sullivan Logistics Stadium (Perth), Saturday October 31, 6.45pm (ACDT)
Fremantle v Sydney at Cockburn ARC Oval (Perth), Sunday November 1, 4.35pm (ACDT).
